Peramalan Penggunaan Kapasitas Tempat Tidur Bagi Narapidana dan Tahanan dengan Metode Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) (Studi Kasus: Rutan Kelas II B Wates Kabupaten Kulon Progo, Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Tahun 2016)

Abstract

Recently, there have occurred criminal acts that led to overcapacity in prisons. The crime rate in Kulon Progo is still low, so that the overcapacity of prisoners and pre-prisoners in Rutan Kelas II B Wates is rarely happened. However in 2016, there is overcapacity in June, July, and August. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the use of bed capacity for prisoners and pre-prisoners in Rutan Kelas II B Wates in January-April 2017. The data used is the number of prisoners and pre-prisoners, the number of bed capacity for prisoners and pre-prisoners, service rate, arrival rate, and the average use of bed capacity in 2016. The method used in this study is Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC). The results showed that the estimated the use of bed capacity will decline from January until April 2017. Values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) generated amounted to 8.4356%.