Supply Chain Risk Management on Medicine Supply Using House Of Risk (HOR) and Value at Risk Method at RSUD Pandan Arang

Abstract

Hospitals, as defined by the World Health Organization, play a crucial role as essential components within medical and social structures, offering comprehensive healthcare services. The effective management of hospitals is of utmost importance, requiring enhancements in quality to fortify healthcare provisions. This investigation delves into the pivotal role of pharmacy installations in hospitals, underscoring their significance in pharmaceutical planning, supply, and oversight. The focus is on RSUD Pandan Arang, a government-owned hospital in Boyolali, Central Java, to assess the contribution of pharmaceutical installations in supporting diverse medical services, particularly those under BPJS. The study identifies inherent uncertainties in the future that pose risks to the overall business process, stressing the need for efficient drug supply chain management to ensure optimal service delivery, patient safety, and consultation availability. To address these challenges, the study employs the House of Risk (HOR) technique and the Value at Risk (VaR) method to identify, analyze, and mitigate potential hazards. Drawing on historical

data, the study pinpoints 17 risk events and agents, with a focus on two high-risk, low- incidence primary agents: "lack of supervision of medicine by the head of the pharmacy

department" and "lack of communication with distributors." Additionally, the VaR technique estimates potential financial impacts over a three-month period with a 95% confidence level, suggesting losses ranging from Rp 2,645,000.00 to Rp 183,522,609.07. These risks encompass inaccuracies in RAB calculations, forecasting issues, fluctuations in pharmaceutical prices, ordering errors, shortages, communication gaps, shipping negligence, quality control lapses, and extended return timeframes. The research concludes by highlighting the importance of implementing effective risk management measures.