Feasibility Study Using Simulation Based Net Present Value Analysis (Case Study in Kopen Coffee, Yogyakarta)

Abstract

Coffee is one of the biggest commodities in Indonesia, along with rubber and textile. Nowadays, there are many coffee shops that established and this also in-line with the number of demands that increasing in Indonesia from period of 2018/2019 to 2019/2020. Luckily, Indonesia is the fourth biggest countries producing coffee beans after Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia. Lots of people investing their money in coffee shop business. In Yogyakarta itself, coffee shop can be found in every inch of steps. One of the coffee shops in Yogyakarta that already established is Kopen Coffee. It is located in Condongcatur, where there are quite lots of undergraduate students lived and also one of densely populated area in Yogyakarta. With the competition and lots of people who invested and interested in this kind of business, this research would like to know the worth of the money invested in Kopen Coffee as well as the other similar business using Net Present Value (NPV) method that simulated using Monte Carlo. From the calculation that has been done, it is shown that the NPV of Kopen Coffee generates positive value, which is equal to Rp 336,506,243.61. From this result, it can be indicated that this project is feasible to run. After 1000 times of iteration, the NPV shows average of Rp 287,411,388, with mean standard error Rp 3,956,371. While the probability if the NPV is less than zero is 0.08%.